Last year’s cold and flu season was a hectic one for community pharmacy, with high levels of circulating winter viruses, severe pressures on the NHS, and shortages of several common OTC and prescription medicines.
This year, the Government originally pushed the start date of the flu and Covid vaccinations back to October. But with the sudden rise of the new BA.2.86 Covid-19 variant, it announced at the end of August that the flu vaccination and Covid booster would start in September, after all.
The vaccination changes and new Covid variant could lead to another challenging season for community pharmacy teams. With Pharmacy First expected to launch in England by the end of the year, rising numbers of customers are likely to be seeking advice from community pharmacies rather than from their GP surgery.
“It’s unlikely to be a less dramatic winter,” says Ade Williams, lead prescribing pharmacist at Bedminster Pharmacy in Bristol. “The expected launch of the common ailments scheme in England may mean more people see value in community pharmacy services, but problems may occur if pharmacies can’t cope with the demand.”
Eoghan O’Brien, community pharmacist at Bannside Pharmacy in Portglenone, Northern Ireland, says that in Northern Ireland, the situation is still uncertain. “We normally have a Pharmacy First service in Northern Ireland over the winter, but this didn’t run last year, which put a spanner in the works,” he says. “We don’t yet know if it will be running this year either. It’s important to have a consistent, ongoing funded service each year to take the pressure off the GPs.”
According to a Community Pharmacy Scotland (CPS) spokesperson: “In winter 2022/23, community pharmacy teams undertook over 1.5 million consultations with patients suffering from common clinical conditions, delivering care where it is needed and making a major contribution to the delivery of the primary care workload. It’s anticipated that the service will deliver even more consultations and care through winter 2023/24.”
Jakemans senior brand manager Elizabeth Hughes-Gapper adds: “It’s important to look at growing consumer trends for pharmacists to fully prepare themselves for cold and flu season. As the NHS continues to be under pressure from increased demand, the organisation recommends that patients experiencing winter ailments – such as a cough or sore throat – can be self-medicated or treated by seeing their local pharmacist.”
Virus surges
Last winter saw a surge in strep A infections and scarlet fever, as well as being a strong flu season. According to the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) and Health Protection Surveillance Centre in Ireland in June 2023, cases of scarlet fever and invasive group A streptococcal infection in England still remain higher than normal.
Further data released from the UKHSA in June indicated that excess deaths in England last year associated with flu were higher (14,500) than the average figure (13,500) for the five years before the pandemic – the highest figure since the 2017-2018 season, when there were 22,500 excess flu deaths. Last year’s flu season started relatively early, but also peaked quickly. Influenza A(H3N2), which was the predominant subtype in 2022-2023, is known to be more severe in older age groups, but other factors were involved as well.
“Flu returned at scale last winter after being locked out by Covid-19 control measures,” says Dr Conall Watson, consultant epidemiologist at the UKHSA. “Lower population immunity following flu’s absence played a part in the season starting relatively early and led to lots of people catching flu in a short timeframe. Many people needed advice from NHS 111 services, and there were high numbers of severe flu episodes that required hospital care, placing pressure on the health system.”
There isn’t enough data yet to show whether the new Covid-19 variant will lead to increased hospital admissions. “Covid has not gone away, and with the colder months fast approaching, cases are likely to increase as people start to congregate inside as temperatures drop,” says Karen Baker, expert pharmacist for Care at Thornton & Ross, although she adds that because it is no longer being tracked as closely, its spread is harder to monitor.