Social factors

Normally, this section would be about people living longer, and pressure on healthcare spending, but the pandemic has accelerated the move online, and not just for purchases. Smartphones and apps are now used by millions to help look after their healthcare needs. Face-to-face behavioural change approaches were becoming more common; they too have been delivered remotely and their success (or otherwise) will determine whether more care goes that way.

Meanwhile, the existing pressure to treat chronically ill patients at home has led to a growth in domiciliary and palliative care, often bypassing pharmacy. How will the pandemic affect the provision of that in the future?

Locating a pharmacy close to a doctor’s surgery used to be the most important criteria for success. Now, prescriptions can travel vast distances in milliseconds and can be delivered within hours. Drones will be next.

Technological Factors

The pandemic has boosted the growth trajectory of online pharmacies, but will they be able to retain customers as things return to ‘normal’? More than 400 community pharmacies in the UK now have their own robots – is that trend going to continue? Is there going to be a hub and spoke business case that can work for independents? What will be the impact of all this on pharmacy numbers?

Mobile apps are helping patients self-diagnose and order medications; remote diagnostics can help monitor patients at home. Will pharmacy have a role or will new players dominate? 3D printing is an eye opener. If it is already possible to print guns, why not print medicines in people’s homes? What would be the role of the pharmacist then?