Independents pharmacy businesses could collectively be losing up to £10 million compared to the multiple pharmacy chains due to the time spent chasing medicines supply, estimates Sigma Pharmaceutical's Rajiv Shah.

This rough figure was calculated from an estimate based on potential losses from one pharmacy and multiplying it up, he said, although this is difficult to assess. ‘How do you quantify that loss in goodwill when a patient walks down the road [to another pharmacy],’ he asked.

Many pharmacies are dispensing at a loss because of shortages, he commented. But forecasting product requirements ahead of time, up to one month, so that a pharmacy has stock on the shelf, is a good way forward he suggested. Sigma is now advising customers to do this, using their PMR data, he said. While the multiples have branded deals in place allowing for consistent supply, independents tend to shop around for good deals using many suppliers. ‘We all think we are the best buyers. Some people still spend time to make sure every purchase is the cheapest.’

Hand to mouth ordering can also have a knock-on impact on the robustness of the market. As price remains the predominant driver for purchase and demand, smaller generics companies, in particular, find it difficult to predict demand for their products, he described. Shortages might occur as a result, because if a product becomes popular and sells out, it generally takes six to nine months to be back in supply.

Other elements, such as increasing competition, consolidation in the market, also cause stock imbalances. Exported product from the UK remains popular because of the good reputation of the MHRA validated supply chain, he said.

Supply problems will continue, he said. ‘You are going to see a lot more commodity lines go short as we go forward.’

_{Rajiv Shah was speaking to delegates at the recent Avicenna conference in Cyprus}